Because the mud settles on the latest state meeting elections in Hindi-heartland states, together with Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, political events are gearing up for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024. The ruling Nationwide Democratic Alliance (N.D.A.), led by the Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) goals to safe a 3rd consecutive time period, whereas the opposition is coalescing below the banner of the Indian Nationwide Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) to dethrone the Narendra Modi authorities. Notably, events just like the YSR Congress, BJD, BSP, AIADMK, TRS, and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena are presently not aligned with any main coalition.
The BJP, buoyed by latest victories in Hindi-speaking states, aspires to duplicate its success within the Lok Sabha polls. Nonetheless, its biggest problem lies in southern states the place the occasion has traditionally confronted stronger opposition.
A latest opinion ballot performed by ABP Information in affiliation with CVoters supplies insights into the potential distribution of Lok Sabha seats throughout completely different zones in addition to the projected nationwide tally.
East Zone (Complete 153 seats)
Within the East Zone, together with states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal, the BJP-led N.D.A. emerges stronger than the Opposition bloc within the following projection:
Celebration/Alliance | Seat Vary | Vote Share |
BJP/N.D.A. | 80 to 90 | 42% |
Congress/I.N.D.I.A+ | 50 to 60 | 38% |
Others | 10 to twenty | 20% |
North Zone (Complete 180 Seats)
The Northern states which embody Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh seem like supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s governance because the N.D.A. seems to take pleasure in a transparent edge over the Opposition. Union territories like Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Chandigarh, and Delhi are additionally part of the North.
Celebration/Alliance | Seat Vary | Vote Share |
BJP/N.D.A. | 150 to 160 | 50% |
Congress/I.N.D.I.A+ | 20 to 30 | 36% |
Others | 0 to five | 14% |
South Zone (Complete 132 Seats)
An fascinating pattern is seen within the South because the area seems to be rising as a stronghold for the I.N.D.I.A. bloc projected to obtain a 40% vote share. Right here, the notable facet can also be the Others rising with 41% vote share, denoting robust regional events that aren’t part of the Opposition bloc. States like Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu represent the South.
Celebration/Alliance | Seat Vary | Vote Share |
BJP/N.D.A. | 20 to 30 | 19% |
Congress/I.N.D.I.A+ | 70 to 80 | 40% |
Others | 25 to 35 | 41% |
West Zone Celebration (Complete 78 Seats)
The BJP is projected to obtain the next vote share (46%) within the West Zone, together with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.
Celebration/Alliance | Seat Vary | Vote Share |
BJP/N.D.A. | 45 to 55 | 46% |
Congress/I.N.D.I.A+ | 25 to 35 | 37% |
Others | 0 to five | 17% |
All India (Complete 543 Seats)
As per the outcomes of the country-wide survey, the N.D.A. is projected to cross the bulk mark of 271 seats and a vote share of 42%, adopted by the I.N.D.I.A. bloc at 38% share.
Celebration/Alliance | Seat Vary | Vote Share |
BJP/N.D.A. | 295 to 335 | 42% |
Congress/I.N.D.I.A+ | 165 to 205 | 38% |
Others | 35 to 65 | 20% |
Regardless of BJP’s dominance within the northern and western zones, the southern states pose a formidable problem. The opposition, notably the Congress/I.N.D.I.A.+ bloc, is banking on southern states to safe a big variety of Lok Sabha seats.
The opposition, below the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, lately held a vital assembly within the nationwide capital on December 19 to strategise for the upcoming elections. The bloc introduced {that a} resolution on seat-sharing preparations throughout states will probably be reached quickly and a joint marketing campaign with mass outreach with happen. This assembly gained significance within the wake of the Congress occasion’s setbacks within the latest state meeting polls the place the BJP emerged victorious in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
The stage is ready for a high-stakes electoral battle in 2024 as political gamers recalibrate their methods and search to form the political panorama of the nation.
[Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level Vote Share projection with 95% Confidence interval.]